So there is one graph that clearly illustrates Uganda's population woes and that is the population as a function of time graph. So, before Professor Orzel chimes in with questions (see the last section of this blog), the last two data points were projections that I found in the Primary 5 Uganda Social Studies book and the fit, as labeled, is an exponential fit using Microsoft Excel. I apologize in advance. (I am giving him a hard time, he is really a good guy with a book coming out that you should all buy. He has a very good blog - just google Chad Orzel and it pops up. He is that popular).


So what this graph says is that the population is rising very, very fast and should roughly double before 2050. According to a recent Monitor article, "High Birth Rates Fail UPE Says Minister Lokeris" states that the birth rate is 3.6 percent, which according to my macintosh calculator means the population will double in 19 years. I stated in a blog a couple months ago that a poll with my primary 6 class in Bunyere Village showed that the families in this area have 7.1 kids (n=198). One person had 18 siblings and just one student had only one sibling. A man from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) stopped by the health clinic on one of his surveys and I excitedly peppered him with questions - he must be more accurate than CIA Factbook! He couldn't tell me the average children per family, but he did tell me that he was confident it was greater than five and that a lot of people walk several miles to receive basic medical treatment.
Population Pressures
The population pressures Uganda in all kinds of ways. The article "High Birth Rates Fail UPE Says Minister Lokeris" discusses the pressure on underfunded schools with too many kids (and that the Millennium Goal for universal primary education, UPE, is impossible with the joint pressure of inadequate funding and growing population). On the opposite page a newspaper article declares "Pupils learn from tree shades in Pader." It starts, "At least 50 primary schools in Pader operate under trees due to inadequate classrooms" (Monitor, Friday October 10, 2008). The class I work with has 70 students; it may be me, but I don't think it is the most conducive environment for learning. Some people I've spoken to believe that one out of five kids attend school in this area.
From our perch at the top of the hill I see problems. As the sun was nearly set I saw three siblings from a nearby family (of six) carrying firewood from the dwindling set of trees. 55,000 hectares of forest cover is lost every year according to another Monitor Article "Uganda should join the global tree planting campaign" (October 2, 2008). The great apes in the southwest corner of Uganda (there are 700 remaining in the world) are threatened by Congo rebels smuggling charcoal (if the villagers don't use scavenged wood, they use coal).
An Eagle and No Apparent Solution
The clinic lends some of its land to families to plant crops (and Becky, John, and I have been working in the garden for over a month now, trying to get some nutritious crops ready by December), but it is not enough. The house closest to the clinic eats one solid meal per day and the kids are pretty clearly malnourished. It killed me today when I saw an eagle swoop down and steal one of the families chicks. The father had been standing, guarding the chicks from the eagle, but he was ignored. He looked defeated and I really felt for him. Six kids helps a family gather enough water and firewood and maintain their land, but after a couple generations in a village of 8 person families the land per person is severely depleted. I sense that this region is at critical point in its development and from here on out it can't continue to develop in the same way without drastically increasing hardships. I try to mentally cut a slice of land for each of the kids, but the math just won't work out. In some mathematics or physics courses, you can sometimes tell when a solution isn't right - maybe the units aren't right or the order of magnitude is suspicious, or, perhaps, the physical constraints are exceeded (I remember an intro chem problem where we needed a value for the speed of light greater than 3 x 109. For this mental math, the solution just doesn't work out appropriately.
The Beginnings of Absolute Desperation
Of course, The Monitor bolsters my nightmares regularly. In one paper I read that "The pastoralists accused the Police of siding with the cultivators, participating in the burning of houses and attempted to shoot those who tried to defend their property" ("One killed in fresh Kasese land clash") and, in the same paper, an article titled "Encroachers urged to leave church land" (October 10). I distinctly remember an influential high school teacher reminding us that governments can be repressive and ignore its people with little retribution, but when families don't have bread (in this case bananas or Ankole cattle) there will be violence. So these land clashes that started a year ago may be the beginnings of absolute desperation. But maybe, hopefully, I am being overly dramatic.
Climate Change and Bananas
Climate change has made its mark and is illustrated in conversations I've had with villagers as well as in climate projections. I've been told again and again, that the rainy season is starting later. Becky and I spend roughly 1-2 hours per day irrigating 150 cabbages, 27 tomato plants, and a nursery bed of eggplant, green pepper, leafy greens, and carrots (we don't water the peanuts we planted). Small scale. It would not be possible for a family to carry enough water to irrigate all of its bananas every day that it didn't rain - there isn't enough water in the bore-hole and there aren't enough hours in the day. Remember that at the bare minimum, a family must grow plantains to fill their stomachs; peanuts, tomatoes, greens, and other nutritious crops are an afterthought. So this is a major development in the last decade, decreasing crop yields from decreased rainfall and increasing the pressure on a country scraping by.
The villagers also tell me that the wetland in the valley has all but disappeared. John Kalule explains that, when he was a kid, the valley was like a lake, but you can now walk through it easily even in the rainy season. Regionally and nationally, it is the same story. "Global warming and Greenhouse gases have caused temperatures to rise, with south-western Uganda being the most affected. This is evidenced by the reduction of the water table in Mbarara, the declining of water levels in Katonga wetland system, Lake Mburo, River Rwizi, Kitagata hot springs, Lake Nakivale, the persistent droughts since 1990 and the decline in food production...The FAO representative in Uganda, Percy Misika, says temperatures are still rising and over 80% of the country could turn into a desert soon" (Monitor, "Uganda should join global tree planting campaign," Ebenezer Bifubyeka). Bifuyeka goes on to point out that "Climate change in Karamoja, where plants are confined in forest reserves has escalated to seven droughts that hit the region between 1991 and 2000 as opposed to one drought every 10 years. This is not to mention the 40% drop in the ice caps on Mountain Rwenzori, which has resulted into decreasing river flows and freshwater."
President Yoweri Museveni recently declared that nine million Ugandans and 213 million sub-Saharan Africans are starving. Museveni blames falling food production on climate change, while the World Food Program points out that food exports to Kenya are a large part of the problem (Monitor, "9 million Ugandans starving - Museveni," John Emojong).
Think about that. The article was not dramatic and emphasized Uganda's poor meteorological resources. Nine million might have been high - starving or malnourished? In either case it is nine million people on the brink. Uganda is the size of Oregon and has 32 million people. Nine million people is 28 percent of the population. That is like getting up one morning to pick up the newspaper, looking side to side at your neighbors and realizing that the neighbors to the right of you don't have enough to eat. At Engeye, we have neighbors like that. A family with five kids 100 feet north of the clinic is not properly nourished and fights to scrape by.
Uganda and Population
There are more people every day, which puts more pressure on drastically underfunded schools. The schools fail to teach. I just finished grading a Primary Seven mathematics examination: the teacher's answer key (I scored it, too) deserved a 72% (lower than three students). The mean score (49 kids) was a 40%; the median was a 37%. These privileged few are charged with the future of their village. Their generation will have to persevere on less land, with less rain, less water resources, and more mouths to feed. The UN receives less than half of pledged funding to address universal primary education, malnutrition, extreme poverty, etc. Something has to give.
The Teacher Learns
I remember going into the primary six class and drawing a flat, horizontal line across 20 feet of blackboard followed by a swift vertical line up to the top of the blackboard, representing the world population in the last 5,000 years or so. I think the world hit its first billion in the last 150 years. We are now approaching seven billion. I explained to the kids how fossil fuels helped us achieve such a high population. I tried to impress upon them how incredible the population growth was. I vaguely remember standing on a desk and pointing to the top of the chalk line I had drawn as if to say, "look how many people there are in the world right now!" I then gravely discussed what increased population means for per capita land and how vital fossil fuels, mineral resources, and water were disappearing. I drew two stick figures and gave them 6 kids. I gave half of those stick figures six kids and so on until I had 54 sticks (four generations) on the board. I grunted as I drew them to emphasize how many kids these stick figures were having. They must have been busy! For each generation of stick figures I divided a mock village into smaller and smaller, proportional plots of land to illustrate what population increases meant on the local level. Most of these kids in my class won't be able to leave the village. This was somewhere in my first full week in Ddegeya, Uganda. I think this was the point that I realized the kids had no idea what I was saying. The lecture would have only been slightly less clear if delivered in Portugese. One girl in the front row blatantly fell asleep. I am now at the point where I can communicate ideas effectively to the students and capture their attention long enough to make sure that at least a few kids get something out of my presence. At some point I will redo the population talk, especially after re-reflecting on what population means for this village.
Physics Department at Union and Professor Orzel
This section is probably only interesting to Bilal and Mike and is a very long detour to my population graph in the next section. It has nothing to do with Uganda. This section was originally at the beginning, but I moved it to the end where it might be less noticeable (it is a not so serious section of a serious blog post).
I love the Department of Physics and Astronomy at Union College. It is a tight-knit group and I'm pretty sure that the only person who has the combination of know-how and want to put my blog on RSS feed is a recent graduate of the department. One of the trials the department puts you through between leisurely summer research, horrendous, time consuming lab courses, department luncheons organized by the department problem fixer, Colleen Palleschi, and weekly department talks that the faculty can't stay awake in is "student talks." They will do anything in their power to have you talk in front of people and we are all the better for it.
But we all feared them for one reason. A seven foot giant in the department named Chad Orzel usually attends these talks and occasionally raises his hand. He has been known to use single words in the place of long sentences, which left Bilal and I to pretend to understand his explanations far too many times. "Man, this secretary was giving me such a hard time about our grant proposal." "So, umm, so, Ogothemetric proshabadasher," he would reply and giggle to himself (All physics professors begin sentences with the word "so"). Bilal and I would then back away slowly faking a chuckle.
Despite his own scary vocabulary, he detests when you use fancy words like "ascertain" instead of something like "determine" or "find out." Occasionally, after he destroyed our morale on a particularly horrible homework assignment or laboratory, one of the best and the brightest in the department would use Word's synonym do-hicky as much as possible, just to irritate him and, perhaps, to highlight the hypocritical pet-peeve.
Anyways, his vocabulary is not what we feared. We feared the questions he would ask in our "student talks." He had a different set of questions for each discipline. When students throw out 18 new, mystifying terms (proteatric neoplasyogelic acid goo) in their presentations he would slowly have them flip back to a particular slide - this is always how it started, "So, umm, could you go back seven slides to the one with the picture of the double helix?" - and he would pick the perfect question to make you stumble. Students with graphs always had it worst. I used to feel bad for the kids with two points, a line, and an R2 value of one; I think he eventually stopped bothering to explain that you can't conclude a trend from two data points. He could always sense your ability and what you didn't know. He would come in with that question, let you struggle, and, thankfully, allow you to leave it answered incorrectly or unanswered.
He left me untouched until Steinmetz Day my senior year, when, with five other people in the crowd, he asked me about a complicated graph that I had stupidly made in Excel instead of Sigma Plot. At first I blatantly turned to the audience and explained that I would not answer Professor Orzel's question and asked if there were any other questions. Professor Koopmann, the student's ally, kept her hand down. Professor Orzel spoke up, without acknowledgment, "So, can you turn to that one over r-squared plot?" "No," I replied. After a minute I was forced to turn to the slide - "That is labeled as one over r-squared, but clearly, it is not one over r-squared." If I had learned one thing as a Physics student at Union it is that the Physics faculty likes to work with non-mainstream technology - they nearly rioted when they couldn't use a dos-like e-mail program called "pine" as ITS switched to a Microsoft server. Many use linux or macs and most gripe about Microsoft while using it. "Oh, yeah, I made the graph in Microsoft - you know how bad Microsoft can be..." I explained. "You know I have a copy of Sigma Plot and it can make some really professional looking one over r-squared plots," he retorted. I saw Professors Vineyard, Koopmann, and LaBrake simultaneously nod their head yes, silently wondering why Steve didn't think of that. So I am always very cautious of graphs within Professor Orzel's long reach, this blog with graphs is no different.